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2010.08.25 14:21:53 Financial crises related to balance sheet problems in banks take years to resolve, and now we start to realize that. The liquidity run we experienced in 2009 is now far behind us. The rollercoaster is rocking the markets, from the ghosts of sovereign default to foreclosures, the impulse response has...... Read more...
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2010.08.14 16:36:29 The first and second quarter of 2010 could be seen as having generated a mixed response, however, if we put it in perspective with last year's performance, I think 2010 could have performed much worse. We are now below the S&P500 value on January 4th, but not too far below. The market started well, but...... Read more...
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2010.07.26 10:26:07 Who killed James Bond? Private Equity did. The answer is not obvious, but if you read my blog post about how Private Equity destroys companies by loading them with debt, you already have a clue. MGM studios is in deep trouble, with a debt pile of about $4bn, and the cash flow generated from DVD sales keeps...... Read more...
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2010.07.18 16:38:45 Should investors buy bank shares or should they rather avoid bank stocks? Personally, I avoid investing in banks, not because I believe the share prices are overvalued, but because I have no visibility on what is going on within the bank. This being said, bank shares can be a good investment, as it was...... Read more...
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2010.07.03 02:30:05 Hernando de Soto famously pointed out that a key difference between developed countries and developing countries was the possibility to pledge land title or real estate as a collateral to gain access to credit. Financing, as we know, is the blood of the economy. If the economy is powered by the muscle...... Read more...
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2010.06.26 15:03:52 Finally, there it is, the finance bill has been agreed upon, but what do I do with my portfolio? The answer is not obvious, unfortunately. The finalized bill takes away the uncertainty of surprises, a good thing for markets. Uncertainty is always traded at a discount, so we can expect a very short term...... Read more...
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2010.06.20 17:31:24 China is to finally resume its currency appreciation compared to the US dollar. Big news indeed, it's been a while since we expected this to happen. The pressure from foreign governments was building up, but in the end it probably makes most sense for the Chinese economy. Internal inflation is at an all...... Read more...
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2010.06.18 17:19:40 Companies listed on the S&P 500 have a record pile of cash on hand, and everybody wonders what they will do with it. Looking at the unemployment rate figures in the US, it does not look like the companies spend the cash on creating jobs. Instead, those companies are looking at two possibilities: First,...... Read more...
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2010.06.15 10:24:55 US seeks $ 20bn BP pay-out is the title in the FT today. Did you ever wonder if BP can afford this? You would expect a large multi-national in the Oil & Gas industry to be able to pay for this, but, did you check BP's financial statements? BP has about $ 6bn in cash, did you know that? Of course BP has...... Read more...
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2010.06.09 14:29:25 Greece with its empty coffers, Hungary with its threat of having to restructure its debt, and the US with its ever lasting Great Recession are all candidates for being the culprit of rocking the boat. On the surface, China is the big winner with a strong growth. Its neighbours enjoy economic growth thanks...... Read more...
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2010.06.05 18:12:15 The latest report of job creation in the US showed 431,000 new jobs, from which 411,000 are temporary government jobs for the census. Well, well, well, the cat is finally out of the bag. The stock market immediately punished this bad news, but frankly speaking, many were expecting this. Why? Because the...... Read more...
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2010.05.24 22:47:35 Betting against the Sterling is back in vogue as speculation reaches record levels after the UK general elections. Positioning data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, often used as a proxy for hedge fund activity, showed that speculators had extended their bets against sterling from 72,188 contracts...... Read more...
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2010.05.22 14:31:15 The financial regulation that is due to be signed by President Obama has not gone unnoticed in the markets. The markets roiled with the S&P down by 9% compared to the begin of May. Greece is indeed part to blame, but the Greek worries are not new, we know about the Greek tragedy for a while now. Germany's...... Read more...
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2010.05.17 15:26:34 Google and Intel announce a partnership in launching Web TV using Intel's Atom processor and Google's Android Operating System. The only piece missing is the hardware and consumer brand name to get it into the consumer's home. That is where Sony is expected to fill the gap. This all sounds like an explosive...... Read more...
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2010.05.15 23:15:41 "Obama turns BP anger on regulators" is the latest news from the White House, really ? I am flabbergasted to see that the Oil & Gas regulator who schmoozed for decades with the Oil & Gas industry and its lobbyists (read 'drinking champagne') is being hammered now that an oil spill, which had to happen...... Read more...
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2010.05.13 10:54:07 Beijing Home Prices Plunge 31.4% Not too long ago, we experienced a serious decline in real estate prices, and the world suffered. Unfortunately, it looks like the contagion is spreading to China after all. Real estate prices in Beijing decreased by 31% over the last month, an abyssal drop, even for Chinese...... Read more...
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2010.05.02 18:24:45 Now that we have seen a huge surge in the stock market, we cannot expect this rally to continue at the same pace. The question is then, what to do with the money? There is always market timing and trying to short the index, now that a correction might be gaining strength, but that is only short term...... Read more...
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2010.04.27 21:58:01 What's a subprime mortgage originator ? A person or company that pushes people between the 5th and the 29th percentile to take on debt that they cannot repay What's a subprime mortgage broker? A company that buys the subprime mortgages from the originator and sells it to an investment bank What's a subprime...... Read more...
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2010.04.19 11:55:55 Swiss negotiation technique consists of hitting hard on some points, and then soothing the counterparty's feelings by giving in on some items you can let go. Goldman Sachs is now being hit hard by the SEC, but funnily enough, the rescue package offered to Goldman was given before the hammer. It is interesting...... Read more...
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2010.04.16 15:49:41 On average, financial crises occur every 10 years. I am sure you did not take that into account in your financial plan. Neither did I actually, until I read about this horrifying fact. Before 2008, there was the Asian crisis in 1997 and the Russian default in 1998.And before that we had the US Savings...... Read more...
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